Stemming the Tide of the US Overdose Crisis: How Can We Leverage the Power of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence?

See all articles in the special issue, Mental Health and Substance Use Challenges Facing the United States: What Can State Policymakers Do?

The Overdose Crisis: Epidemiologic Profile and Potential Solutions

People in the United States are dying at record numbers from overdose.¹ Overdose deaths increased from fewer than 17,000 deaths in 1999 to an estimated 100,000 deaths approximately 25 years after, with a peak of almost 108,000 deaths in 2022.² Racial/ethnic minoritized groups are now particularly affected: in 2023, the highest rates of overdose were among non-Hispanic Black and American Indian/Alaska Native Americans.³ Although overdoses increasingly involve both opioids and stimulants, opioids contribute to over three-quarters of all overdose deaths, primarily driven by illegally manufactured synthetic opioids like fentanyl.¹

Provisional data indicate that we have seen an overall decline in US overdose deaths in the past 2 years, with a decline of 4% in 2022–2023 and 17% in 2023–2024.⁴ Despite this substantial decline, the number of deaths per year remain higher than they were prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, this decline has been unequally experienced across racial and ethnic groups. According to the latest available race-specific data, White populations saw a 7% decline in 2022–2023 compared with a 3% increase among Black Americans, a 39.4% increase among Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander populations, and no change among other racial/ethnic groups.³ These patterns signal a need to develop targeted and tailored interventions that effectively reduce both total overdose deaths and disparities in overdose.

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