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October 14, 2025
Quarterly Article
Spruha Joshi
Victoria A. Jent
Sneha M. Sunder
Katherine Wheeler-Martin
Magdalena Cerdá
Sep 3, 2025
September 2025
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Policy Points:
See all articles in the special issue, Mental Health and Substance Use Challenges Facing the United States: What Can State Policymakers Do?
Context: Despite recent declines in national overdose deaths, these reductions have not been equitably experienced. Black and Hispanic communities continue to face rising rates of opioid-related mortality, even as overdose death rates among White individuals have begun to decline. One of the most widely implemented policy responses to the overdose crisis has been the adoption of prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs), particularly “must-query” mandates requiring prescribers to consult the PDMP before issuing controlled substances. However, limited research has examined whether the impact of these mandates varies by race and ethnicity.
Methods: We used restricted-use National Vital Statistics System data from 2013 to 2020 to estimate county-level overdose mortality stratified by drug type and race and ethnicity. We categorized deaths as follows: (1) all drug overdoses, (2) all opioid overdoses, and (3) natural/semisynthetic opioid overdoses. Exposure to must-query mandates was modeled as the proportion of the prior year during which mandates were in effect. Using Bayesian spatiotemporal models with county random effects and spatial autocorrelation, we estimated relative rates (RRs) for each outcome overall and by race and ethnicity, adjusting for state policies and sociodemographic characteristics.
Findings: Must-query mandates were associated with increases in overdose deaths across all groups, with the largest relative increases among Hispanic (RR = 1.32, 95% credible interval [CrI]: 1.21-1.44) and Black individuals (RR = 1.23, 95% CrI: 1.14-1.33) compared with White individuals (RR = 1.14, 95% CrI: 1.10-1.19). These increases were also observed among Black and Hispanic individuals for natural/semisynthetic opioid overdoses.
Conclusions: PDMP must-query mandates are not uniformly protective across racial and ethnic groups. Increases in overdose mortality following adoption, particularly among Black and Hispanic populations, underscore the need to evaluate drug policies through an equity lens and consider broader structural determinants of health that shape their effectiveness.
