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August 19, 2026
Quarterly Article
Ali H. Mokdad
Laura Dwyer-Lindgren
Christopher J.L. Murray
Jun 29, 2026
Jun 12, 2026
Jun 1, 2026
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Policy Points:
Context: Over the past three decades, mortality from leading causes such as cardiovascular disease and cancer has declined in the United States, but the burden of chronic, disabling conditions, including musculoskeletal disorders, mental and substance use disorders, and obesity, has grown or stagnated, widening the gap between total years lived and years lived in good health. These shifts are accompanied by persistent and widening inequities in longevity by geography, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status.
Methods: This analysis draws on the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study, which estimates mortality, disability, and risk factor burden for 375 diseases and 88 risk factors nationally and at the state level, combined with findings from the US Health Disparities project. The latter uses small-area estimation to evaluate county-level life expectancy and mortality across five racial/ethnic groups and four educational strata, and the “Ten Americas” framework, which stratifies the population by race/ethnicity, geography, and socioeconomic context.
Findings: In 2023, US life expectancy reached 78.5 years and healthy life expectancy 64.5 years, both still below prepandemic 2019 levels, with a persistent 13-14-year gap between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Ischemic heart disease remained the leading cause of death, but drug use disorders rose from the 26th to the leading cause of disability, a 562% increase since 1990, while Alzheimer disease and musculoskeletal disorders also climbed in rank. High systolic blood pressure remained the top mortality risk factor despite a large decline, while high body mass index and high fasting plasma glucose burdens grew substantially. State-level disparities widened, with West Virginia and Mississippi trailing Hawaii by wide and increasing margins. Life expectancy gaps by race/ethnicity, education, and place were large and growing, reaching 20.4 years across the “Ten Americas” by 2021, with county-level life expectancy spanning more than 27 years nationally.
Conclusions: US health trends reflect a shift from fatal to disabling disease, driven substantially by the obesity/metabolic and substance use epidemics, layered onto deep and widening structural inequities by race/ethnicity, place, and education. Reversing these trends requires a multidimensional policy agenda spanning universal, high-quality education; reform of the food and built environment; normalized clinical management of obesity; expanded, integrated substance use and mental health treatment; and modernized, real-time public health data infrastructure.