The Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition: The Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases

Gains in longevity in the United States since the midnineteenth century occurred as a result of an epidemiologic transition: deaths from infectious diseases were replaced by deaths from degenerative diseases. Recent trends in cause-specific mortality suggest a distinct new stage, one of postponement of degenerative diseases. Projections based on these data must be applied cautiously; their implication for health and social policies are likely to be profound.

Author(s): S. Jay Olshansky; A. Brian Ault

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Volume 64, Issue 3 (pages 355–391)
Published in 1986